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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."